Forum:2008 Atlantic hurricane season
July Week Five 05L.EDOUARD AoI: North Central Gulf of Mexico I haven't checked for model support but it looks very conducive for development there, i'd say starting tomorrow. A cluster is moving south and there's perfect high level outflow around the area. -Winter123 00:24, 28 July 2008 (UTC) :Ok no one else sees this. There is a symmetrical mid or low level circulation with good outflow and some convection, though it appears to be waning. We'll see how it is when we get the visible sat. back in the morning. -Winter123 04:41, 29 July 2008 (UTC) ::It's expected to move inland with no development, but it could bring some heavy storms to... NEW ORLEANS! 2007Astro'sHurricane 13:38, 29 July 2008 (UTC) :::It's now located near Alabama, and GFS actually predicts development. 2007Astro'sHurricane 15:22, 2 August 2008 (UTC) 91L.INVEST Whoa! What the hell just popped up in the Gulf of Mexico? This thing came from nowhere and jumped right to medium risk and a recon target. This is a little too close for comfort...although it's so close that if it does become something, I doubt it'll have much time to get very strong. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 17:47, 2 August 2008 (UTC) :I think it might be from the previous system in the Gulf, so please see above, under 91L. INVEST, which it has surprisingly become! 2007Astro'sHurricane 19:31, 2 August 2008 (UTC) You could sort of say this is the same system, or part of it. Expected to hit Texas or Louisiana, probably as a TD. 2007Astro'sHurricane 19:28, 2 August 2008 (UTC) :Moderate risk of development by NHC. I agree with your assessment of a TD max. - Enzo Aquarius 04:20, 3 August 2008 (UTC) ::What? How is this an invest? There's a single thunderstorm being hit with shear and dry air. Though if that thing moving over LA and the thing moving WNW over cuba combines with it it may have a chance. -Winter123 07:05, 3 August 2008 (UTC) :::Well, someone seems to think more highly of it: TCFA. --Patteroast 10:23, 3 August 2008 (UTC) Tropical Storm Edouard Wow. Expected to hit the Houston area as a TS. 2007Astro'sHurricane 22:00, 3 August 2008 (UTC) :And if this year (and last) are to be followed it'll become a hurricane right on the coast. -Winter123 23:49, 3 August 2008 (UTC) ::From what I've seen with Dolly, I wouldn't be surprised to see this thing become a hurricane now. This season is really throwing some curve balls. - Enzo Aquarius 23:58, 3 August 2008 (UTC) :::Whoa, what the hell?! Edouard? 24 hours ago, this thing was nothing, now NHC says it has a chance to become a hurricane before it hits Texas. Man, that water in the Gulf is scary as hell this time of year. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 00:24, 4 August 2008 (UTC) ::::65mph Tropical Storm at landfall. - Salak 13:56, 5 August 2008 (UTC) Tropical Depression Edouard Yet to clear Houston and it's already dropped to a Tropical Depression. - Salak 20:53, 5 August 2008 (UTC) 90L.INVEST AoI: Off Guinea This one might follow 98L in its tracks. 2007Astro'sHurricane 14:51, 31 July 2008 (UTC) 90L.INVEST Supposed to head into the south Caribbean as a cat 1. Yikes! Here comes another 'un. 2007Astro'sHurricane 15:25, 2 August 2008 (UTC) :This one's a ways off from being anything. It's a wait-and-see kind of invest. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 17:48, 2 August 2008 (UTC) ::Low risk of development, but lots of room for it to do so. Wait it out, could turn into something easily. - Enzo Aquarius 04:25, 3 August 2008 (UTC) August Week One 99L.INVEST Yay, NHC predicts medium-risk for development, developed from the northern remnants of 98L. 2007Astro'sHurricane 15:36, 1 August 2008 (UTC) :It's not remnants, it IS 98L. Tell them to look at a satellite archive and see how stupid they are. -Winter123 04:33, 2 August 2008 (UTC) ::Total model dissagreement here. Some models head it into the open sea and toward Europe, while others head it as far west as the eastern Gulf. 2007Astro'sHurricane 15:27, 2 August 2008 (UTC) :::Somewhat impressive. I wouldn't be shocked if this becomes something. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 17:47, 2 August 2008 (UTC) ::::Although there's a moderate risk of development, satelite imagery shows...literally a few light rotating clouds? - Enzo Aquarius 04:24, 3 August 2008 (UTC) :::::Looks like it's developed a little cloud cover over its circulation. Still doesn't look hugely promising that it'll end up doing anything. --Patteroast 13:54, 3 August 2008 (UTC) ::::::Based on WV id say it has no chance, at least for 3 days or so. -Winter123 22:12, 3 August 2008 (UTC) Why was it dropped again? Its north of PR and holding together and headed for Florida. Watch out this could pull a katrina. -Winter123 18:31, 5 August 2008 (UTC) :It could what??! All models (12/12) predict its remnants to turn northwards before hitting Florida. In fact even the remnants of 90L has a 5x better chance of pulling a Katrina. Please do not make such cataclysmic pronouncements! I only predict ten re-Katrinas for the entire rest of this century. 2007Astro'sHurricane 20:10, 5 August 2008 (UTC) ::only 10? yeah id like to see 10 storms hit new orleans as a cat 3 in the next 100 years. Unless you mean 10 hurricanes hitting FL in 100 years, then thats possible but unlikely. 10 TS's is likely. -Winter123 18:40, 6 August 2008 (UTC) :::I recall only five in the entire historical database that had any significant effect on the New Orleans area (1893, 1909, 1915, Betsy and Katrina). This thing's just scattered showers right now and wind shear sucks. I personally try to stay away from the apocryphal, but that's just me. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 05:29, 7 August 2008 (UTC) 06L.FAY AoI: Cape Verde The ITCZ has been tooting endlessly! Wait and see. 2007Astro'sHurricane 19:31, 2 August 2008 (UTC) :I'm not sure if this is the same but this looks like Bertha #2. Same location and a well defined MLC at least. I'd be surprised to see this NOT become a hurricane. -Winter123 18:37, 6 August 2008 (UTC) ::Huh? It looks kind of weak right now. The system near Mali, however, is predicted to strengthen by many models. 2007Astro'sHurricane 15:00, 7 August 2008 (UTC) :::Yeah it died. See below. -Winter123 02:12, 8 August 2008 (UTC) 92L.INVEST Hmm, I guess it un-died. SHIPS predicts a cat.2, supposed to head near Hispanola, medium-risk on TWO. 2007Astro'sHurricane 16:33, 10 August 2008 (UTC) :High risk from NHC now. Most models seem to send this over Hispaniola, Early cycle intensity guidence suggests a Cat 1, poss a Cat 2 after 120 hours, and still intensifying. - Salak 00:32, 11 August 2008 (UTC) ::NHC's got it back at medium risk, but it's showing up on the danger graphic. "ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS". --Patteroast 19:18, 11 August 2008 (UTC) :::Well, this will almost certainly be off, but I predict a TS landfall on Anguilla on the 14th, a cat. 1 landfall on Great Inagua Island on the 16th, a cat. 2 landfall on Andros island on the 17th, a cat. 3 landfall on the 18th near Miami, then a landfall near Spring Hill, Florida as a cat. 3 on the 19th, then a cat. 4 landfall near Cape Hatteras on the 21st, then a cat. 2 landfall in New Jersey on the 22nd. 2007Astro'sHurricane 23:10, 11 August 2008 (UTC) ::::"AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM ON TUESDAY...IF NECESSARY." - Salak 03:00, 12 August 2008 (UTC) :::::Ohh, this is bad: http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/northatlantic/intensity_early2.png. And the forecast track points it toward south Florida. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 06:49, 12 August 2008 (UTC) ::::::Well the latest strength forecast isn't ideal, but it still only rates it as a strong Tropical Storm. It could be a lot worse. I think I'd be more worried about the potential impact in Haiti and the Carribean than in Florida. - Salak 10:35, 12 August 2008 (UTC) :::::::High-risk now, and I think Haiti, Cuba, Bahamas, Florida, and the entire US eastern seaboard up to Connecticut need to watch this closely as well. 2007Astro'sHurricane 15:44, 12 August 2008 (UTC) ::::::::Recon aircraft is being sent out today, so we may have something later on. - Enzo Aquarius 16:02, 12 August 2008 (UTC) :::::::::TCFA, but the recon flight showed no tropical depression yet. Watching very closely... --Patteroast 20:59, 12 August 2008 (UTC) STDS Issued. You know, if this storm is as bad as my previous prediction then this might be the worst since Andrew in some places. 2007Astro'sHurricane 22:08, 12 August 2008 (UTC) :Didn't find a TD, but they intned to send a Hurricane Hunter again tomorrow if necessary. Dropped to medium risk - Salak 00:27, 13 August 2008 (UTC) ::THE AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT MISSION SCHEDULED FOR TODAY HAS BEEN CANCELED. - Salak 11:48, 13 August 2008 (UTC) :::Models giving it a slightly better chance now (did you hear about the possible bigfoot body found in Georgia (US state)?). 2007Astro'sHurricane 23:11, 13 August 2008 (UTC) ::::Nope, not seen it at all in the British news sites. NHC have bumped this back up to High Risk; THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TODAY OR ON FRIDAY AS IT MOVES OVER OR JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY...IF NECESSARY. - Salak 09:30, 14 August 2008 (UTC) :::::Hmm, the latest model run looks a lot like the 1933 Long Island express. GFDL and HWRF predict a cat. 2, but CMC espoecially seems to head it far south and into the Gulf but keeps it a TS, and HWRF gives it cat. 4 pressure but cat. 2 winds. 2007Astro'sHurricane 15:44, 14 August 2008 (UTC) ::::::Woah, OMG!! What the heck has just happened?! It looks like it's just strengthened to a full-blown hurricane within the past few hours, complete with an eye! Recon investigating this system, I think we will possibly have a TS by 11, and I wouldn't be surprised if we did. It's in 29C (84F) water right now, and the water ahead of it is even warmer, up to 31C (88F). Shear is expected to be fairly low as well. GFDL turns it to a cat. 3, HWRF to a cat. 4, racing along the Florida coastline. I hope Florida is prepared for this system. Here comes Fay, and if it forms, then let's pray (rhymes with Fay) that it won't be too bad. 2007Astro'sHurricane 22:08, 14 August 2008 (UTC) :::::::Could somebody please explain to me how this is not a tropical cyclone? It looks like Tropical Storm Fay. I've seen many named storms significantly less impressive than this. I'd be stunned if this fizzles. I'm already stunned that there are no advisories yet. SHIPS, GFDL and HWFI all make it a Category 2 in 96 hrs. HWFI makes it a major hurricane in 108 hrs. (By the way, Astro, the Long Island Express was in 1938, not 1933). -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 22:33, 14 August 2008 (UTC) ::::::::92L really seems pretty remarkable for having stayed this seemingly organized for this long, and yet still not managing to have a fully closed circulation. When it finally closes it up, this thing's gonna go nuts. --Patteroast 02:58, 15 August 2008 (UTC) Must be by now, surely? NHC update: "UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM AT ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO." - Salak 04:02, 15 August 2008 (UTC) :I've just stopped expecting anything from this system. That's because, it's unpredictable! Models think it's east of Puerto Rico, but on satellite I defenitely see the centre just southwest of Puerto Rico's SW tip, and it's moving southwestward, not westard! We better hope that one of the two invests develops very quickly, or we could have trouble. Why? Just look at GFS, if one of the systems doesn't punch a hole through the Bermuda high, then southern Ontario would see sunny weather for a whole day (finally!), but that's not my point. If the high stays strong, then Fay will head into the Gulf of Mexico and make landfall around the Mississippi area. CMC turns 93L into a monster and a re-Juan, which apparently still does not prevent Fay from going into the Gulf. If both systems stay weak, and this one might due to land interaction with Hispanola, then both systems could follow the strong Bermuda high into the Gulf. Most models however predict the system to pass just east of Florida, and GFDL turns it to a cat. 4, I tell you the water there is very warm. Apparently it hasn't been a depression because the circulation didn't reach the surface, but maybe it will have a better chance as recon's being sent again. Hispanola, Cuba, Bahamas, Florida, and the entire US east coast should monitor the progress of the system very closely. Danger, inhibition astraddle transgress! 2007Astro'sHurricane 14:04, 15 August 2008 (UTC) ::Special Tropical Distrurbance statement! "SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA FROM PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED OVER THE MONA PASSAGE IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. THE SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE THE LOW MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR OR OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THIS AFTERNOON. NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ARE SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON." - Salak 16:20, 15 August 2008 (UTC) :::Guess what, it is now near the ''southern coast of the Dominican republic and moving WSW, so its track has shifted south and west. Models are calling for a landfall near the Florida Panhandle, so West Florida may be affected more than east florida. Who knows, maybe the weakness of both systems is a good thing, because it will probably weaken before it can affect the east coast. If one of them strengthens rapidly however, the storm can drift northeastwards and affect the east coast. If the high stays strong, there is a good chance it can make landfall near Mississippi/Alabama and hit S. Ontario. This is a large system, so it is gaining strength from both the Caribbean and the Atlantic. 2007Astro'sHurricane 19:33, 15 August 2008 (UTC) Tropical Storm Fay 5:00 PM advisory brings it straight past depression status and now we have Fay. NHC seems to like the HWRF model and drags it as a tropical storm over the Greater Antilles and the Florida Peninsula, although a bit more of a westward movement and it might become more interesting. Albireo 21:10, 15 August 2008 (UTC) :"Gentlemen, there is good news, and there is bad news. The good news is, Fay will mostly spend time near land so won't be able to strengthen. The bad news is, first said piece of land is Hispaniola." :...dammit.--Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 22:43, 15 August 2008 (UTC) ::Now expected to strengthen into a hurricane before hitting Florida, although the track could farther shift west, because I think it's south of Haiti, not over Hispanola. CMC and GFDL now bring it east of Florida. If you live in Georgia you should also prepare for a TS, and we might get the remnants in Southern Ontario. 2007Astro'sHurricane 14:50, 16 August 2008 (UTC) :::Uh-oh, it's expected to make landfall near Punta Gorda with 140 kph (85 mph) winds and 175 kph (110 mph) gusts, which would make it the worst storm to hit the area since Charley of 2004. 2007Astro'sHurricane 15:35, 16 August 2008 (UTC) ::::Aye carumba, talk about a very weird track. This is definitely not going to be good for Cuba and the west-coast of Florida, especially if Fay is upgraded to hurricane status as is predicted. :S - Enzo Aquarius 01:00, 17 August 2008 (UTC) :::::No longer expected to gain hurricane status, but it has already killed four people in Hispanola. All models and the NHC forecast predict a possible direct hit on Southern Ontario, possibly on the night of Saturday/Sunday, yay! 2007Astro'sHurricane 14:11, 17 August 2008 (UTC) ::::::Not in Cuba, but I'm more concerned about Florida. Tampa is the only major port city on the American Gulf Coast that has yet to suffer incredible destruction via hurricane (Galveston, Corpus Christi, New Orleans, Biloxi and to a lesser extent Mobile and Pensacola have all been visited by epic hurricanes). And this storm is reminding me way too much of Charley (granted, Charley was a Category 2 by this point in its track but even so). It's not forecast to be that bad right now, but that's what worries me. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 04:31, 18 August 2008 (UTC) :::::::Uh oh, it has already killed 77 people, including 50 in Haiti from a flooded bus and 24 in the Dominican Republic in a bus crash. I see a due north movement, more NNE than NNW, and 5/6 models predict it to emerge east of Florida, so we still don't have a good idea where it will go. 2007Astro'sHurricane 14:09, 18 August 2008 (UTC) ::::::::Unfortunately the use of the words "Haiti" and "tropical cyclone" in the same context never has a good outcome :/ As for Fay's future, the NHC keeps stressing that their forecast is low confidence, and I can totally understand why - the models don't agree very much. We can keep our fingers crossed and hope it fails to reach hurricane status, but we'll see. Albireo 17:58, 18 August 2008 (UTC) :::::::::That enlarged high pressure system, combined with the high that will give us beautiful weather tomorrow in Southern Ontario, are beginning to complicate things quite a bit. GFS and UKMET suggest impact near New Orleans, and it could easily enter the Atlantic. Although it's expected to make landfall soon, the high might even stall the system somewhere, and there's plenty of time left for strengthening. 2007Astro'sHurricane 21:15, 18 August 2008 (UTC) Down here in Mobile, it's rained for the past three days. Fay looks like it's getting better organized. It could be a hurricane when you wake up tomorrow morning. On Key West radar, it looks like the inner band is trying wrap around the center and form an eye. Dry air is currently preventing that from happening, but Fay's trying. Good news is that it will likely landfall sooner than originally thought, so it won't have as much time to intensify. Also, if it reemerges in the Atlantic ocean, it could restrengthen some. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 23:48, 18 August 2008 (UTC) :IMO this should be a hurricane at 5am. Clear eyewall more than halfway complete and it should still be over water at 5. It appears to be nearly stalled and it's just sitting here strengthening. But personally i think it is drifting NE. I think it will move near Everglades city and south of Lake okachobee. Then I'm worried it may get caught by the high, strengthen, and move back west into florida and the gulf! But maybe I'm overdramatizing this. it's just what i think and i reallllly need to sleep soon. 0_o -Winter123 07:18, 19 August 2008 (UTC) ::5am Advisory: Landfall at Cape Romano; Tropical storm, all Hurricane warnings dicontinued. Track's haywire... not sure it could cover more of Florida if it tried. - Salak 09:15, 19 August 2008 (UTC) :::OMG, the high is making its prediction unpredictable, expected to emerge in the Atlantic. GFDL actually predicts a cat. 3 and landfall on the Florida/Georgia border, but maybe the remnant low could give us rain in a few days, this high pressure system is giving us crystal-clear skies but it's COLD! 2007Astro'sHurricane 14:18, 19 August 2008 (UTC) ::::Is it just me, or does the satellite presentation get ''better as the storm moves over Florida? Albireo 20:32, 19 August 2008 (UTC) :::::It now has a well-developed eye, and is expected to strengthen to a hurricane and make landfall near Jacksonville, with hurricane watches up to St. Simmons island. 2007Astro'sHurricane 21:29, 19 August 2008 (UTC) ::::::Oh yeah, and instead of weakening, the advisories have strengthened it by 5mph since landfall. HOW!? - Salak 21:59, 19 August 2008 (UTC) :::::::Scary, isn't it? --Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 22:11, 19 August 2008 (UTC) ::::::::AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO ALTAMAHA SOUND...GEORGIA...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF ALTAMAHA SOUND TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER...Shit, that's me! I'm away at school right now, but my family has a condo down on St. Simons Island just south of Altamaha Sound. Why? Aren't storms supposed to weaken over land? -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 23:14, 19 August 2008 (UTC) :::::::::Fay didn't get that memo.--Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 00:41, 20 August 2008 (UTC) I think I might know why it's restrengthening, and I propose several reasons: Most of the convection is located in the super-warm Atlantic and has been for the past few hours, and its centre is only 15 km (10 mi) from shore, plus the extra rainfall over low-lying warm marshy lake-filled land may be giving it extra water, and some of the convection is over the Gulf as well, so it's been able to gain strength from its outer bands. As for fure movement, GFDL is still predicting a high-end cat. 3, with HWRF a low-end cat. 2. Saint Simmons Island could still get hurricane-force winds, and for some reason I thought you lived in Atlanta, and the storm is supposed to be a whole 100 km (60 mi) from Mobile as a TD. 2007Astro'sHurricane 00:51, 20 August 2008 (UTC) :My family still lives in Atlanta, but we have a condo down on St. Simons. I'm in Mobile for school. Looks like it's going to be all Florida now. I could see some pretty heavy this weekend from Fay's remnants though. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 04:30, 20 August 2008 (UTC) Now that Fay stalled over Cape Canaveral I wonder if the track back westwards will get her back into the Gulf maybe in the Appalachee Bay just off Tallahassee. -- 19:24, 20 August 2008 (UTC) :It's nearly stationary, circling around itself and its eye is getting bigger. It's on top of New Smyrna Beach, and some places have gotten a whole year's worth of rain! It's gaining strength, but should slowly move westward over the next few days, and its remnants might affect southern Ontario by maybe August 31st. 2007Astro'sHurricane 16:18, 21 August 2008 (UTC) ::Third US landfall: ...CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY BEGINNING TO CROSS THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NEAR FLAGLER BEACH... 60mph sustained winds, moving at 2mph WNW. - Salak 18:24, 21 August 2008 (UTC) :::Track now wandering south and re-entering the Gulf! Expected to keep as a TS and then a third landlall on Florida, then a forth landfall near Mobile, before wandering up the Mississippi as a TD. This storm won't die! 2007Astro'sHurricane 14:15, 22 August 2008 (UTC) ::::What's the record for most landfalls by one system? Fay has made landfall is the Dominican Republic, Cuba, Key West, twice on the Florida peninsula... forecasts say it'll make another in the Florida Panhandle before a SEVENTH landfall in Alabama!? - Salak 15:06, 22 August 2008 (UTC) :::::I don't know that anyone keeps track of it, partially because "landfall" itself is subjective, and partly because of storms that cross archipelagos - would you count a seperate "landfall" for each island the eye crosses? I know that '98 Georges had at least seven (Antigua, St. Kitts if you include landfall on Nevis, Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic, Cuba, Key West, Biloxi), '94 Gordon had six (Nicaragua, Jamaica, Cuba, Florida Keys, West Florida, East Florida), 04' Jeanne had at least 5 (Guadeloupe, Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic, Abaco Island, Florida) and possibly more when it went over the Bahamas, 07' Noel had at least 5 (Haiti, Haiti, Cuba, Andros Island, Nassau) and possibly more over the Bahamas ... probably a lot more. I'm thinking it's a bit more common than you think. Consider the numerous typhoons that cross the Philippines and probably rack up dozens of technical landfalls along the way as it crosses the numerous islands there. Albireo 18:04, 22 August 2008 (UTC) ::::::Models are dissagreeing again, and the storm is expected to spend about four days over the Mississippi River. I have the feeling that multiple storms will hit southern Ontario right before school starts to conspire into a massive flood. 2007Astro'sHurricane 21:01, 22 August 2008 (UTC) :::::::Salek, the record for most landfalls by a single tropical cyclone (in the Atlantic at least), according to one of my fellow MET majors at USA in Mobile, used to be five (Florence in 1960). That record may have but hours to live. The Florida Keys storm in 1906 had six landfalls (Nicaragua, Belize, Cuba, Keys, S FL, NE FL) Fay is forecast to park right over us essentially and dump a sh!tload of rain. Sounds like a fun weekend. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 22:32, 22 August 2008 (UTC) AoI: Off Georgia (US state) CMC, GFS, and mm5fsu33a all predict something significant out of this, entering the Gulf Stream and strengthening. You can't say for sure that the other models ''don't develop something out of this, either. 2007Astro'sHurricane 13:53, 6 August 2008 (UTC) :What????????????????????????????????????????????????????????? West Virginia is 100% sunny, and about 6 hours ago when you posted that, it had some high clouds that blew away. You're posting 100 aois every day with the hope of one being right. stop it. But if you're referring to the trough moving towards bermuda, i'd say 2% chance. Still not AoI worthy. -Winter123 18:42, 6 August 2008 (UTC) ::Winter, he's doin' it for attention, just ignore him. If we ignore the silly stuff, hopefully he'll get sick of it and quit. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 05:11, 7 August 2008 (UTC) :::What I meant was this (the system coming off of South Carolina/Florida at 60h), and also note the thing coming off of Africa at 90h, although since nobody likes those, I'll just stop posting them until they hit a coastline, okay? 2007Astro'sHurricane 15:11, 7 August 2008 (UTC) ::::Yeah i see that, but how is that west virginia? If you said something like Potential AoI: Florida 60 hours" it would make more sense. What is forecasted on that model doesn't even exist yet. It's the tail end of a front that will spin up when it sits over the gulf stream. And about african waves. Their presentation over land has NO impact on how they will do in the water. I even believed a few of your posts but then they died the next day. So just wait and see. It's not like theres land out there anyway -Winter123 02:10, 8 August 2008 (UTC) :::::That model appears to be forecasting future overall weather patterns and in analyzing those weather patterns foresaw the formation of areas of low pressure or disturbed weather. These systems don't exist yet, but this particular model thinks they will. I prefer waiting until a disturbance actually exists before I start postulating on what it might or might not do. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 04:54, 8 August 2008 (UTC) ::::::I like to call it backtracking, in which I play the forward animation, and when the system appears, I slowly rewind it and follow the pre-system until it comes to its initial position at 0h. I do this becasue I often also track thunderstorms on radar to see where they originated and tropical cyclones' remnants ''after they dissapate. Now, let's shift your attention to the East Pacific, where I recently succesfully predicted using AoIs: Kika, Hernan, 95E, and 96E; not to be outdone, Eric (sky) also predicted 93C and 94E. 2007Astro'sHurricane 18:12, 8 August 2008 (UTC) ::::::::Get over yourself! EP storms are very easy to predict. They spin off the itcz in a very easily distinguishable cluster, become an invest, then move WNW and die in cold water. -Winter123 16:23, 10 August 2008 (UTC) ::::::Looking at the latest CMC run, it merges what's left of 99L with this system (over North Carolina), and also turns what looks like the remnants of Edouard into a hurricane off the US east coast, and also turns what's left of the AoI near Cape Verde and that system over Africa into two new systems. The tropics have exploded! 2007Astro'sHurricane 20:31, 8 August 2008 (UTC) ::::::::There are NO remnants of edouard! It died over the NM/TX border, if you check satellite archives you will see this -Winter123 16:23, 10 August 2008 (UTC) :::::::Now that it finally exists, I've re-named it. Only CMC gives it a good forecast, but there are more expected to follow, and even the remnants of Edouard might develop. 2007Astro'sHurricane 14:10, 9 August 2008 (UTC) Well, you're right, an area of low pressure now exists in the western Atlantic but it's forecast to head northeast and the wind shear is abyssimal up that way, blowing in excess of 50 knots. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 19:28, 9 August 2008 (UTC) What storm off Georgia? There's clear skies. Use your eyes man! The ULL over Toronto has a better chance than "off georgia". -Winter123 16:24, 10 August 2008 (UTC) :Told ya the wind shear was a bitch. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 06:50, 12 August 2008 (UTC) ::It's headed up into cold water without strengthening, but now many models predict development out of the low near Texas/Oklahoma. I'm not ready to post an AoI though because as per request so I'll wait until it hits a coastline. 2007Astro'sHurricane 15:48, 12 August 2008 (UTC) 93L.INVEST AoI: Cape Verde This finally exists as well, with GFS giving it the best forecast and developing several systems. 2007Astro'sHurricane 14:10, 9 August 2008 (UTC) AoI: W of Cape Verde NHC has this at medium-risk, models give it the best chance out of the three systems. GFS even turns it into what looks like a cat. 3!! 2007Astro'sHurricane 16:35, 10 August 2008 (UTC) :Dropped to low risk, the AoI chasing it (see immediately above?) has been made medium risk now though. - Salak 00:34, 11 August 2008 (UTC) 93L.INVEST Looks like two of the AoIs (Cape Verde and W of Cape Verde) have sort of merged... NHC puts the whole thing at medium risk of development and that "SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS". --Patteroast 13:14, 11 August 2008 (UTC) :Showing up on NHC's danger graphic, now. "THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO". --Patteroast 19:19, 11 August 2008 (UTC) ::Looks like a TD now! I'd be surprised if this isnt a TD at 5 and TS at 11, and Hurricane within 2 days of that. -Winter123 19:40, 11 August 2008 (UTC) :::Huh? It doesn't look ''that developed. Well, anyway, this will almost certainly be off, but I predict a pass near Bermuda as a cat. 3 on the 18th, then a cat. 2 landfall near Newark on the 20th. 2007Astro'sHurricane 23:19, 11 August 2008 (UTC) ::::It's got a nice rotation to it and conditions seem to be ripening up. We've got ourselves a couple of troublemakers out there and the models point them both at Florida, and being located where they are, I don't like it when the models start saying that. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 06:54, 12 August 2008 (UTC) :::::Which models are you looking at? Just been looking at these and they seem to have "fishspinner" written all over this system. Of course, it's still early days. - Salak 10:32, 12 August 2008 (UTC) ::::::CMC and GFDL come close to putting it at a bullseye for Bermuda (the astronomical name for bull's eye, by the way, is Aldebaran, the brightest star in Taurus). GFS keeps it weak but heads it for south Florida. I personally think that Bermuda, and the north American east coast from North Carolina to Newfoundland need to watch this closely. Why the east coast? Should I even say it? High pressure variations, conflicting steering currents, and Fu******. 2007Astro'sHurricane 15:56, 12 August 2008 (UTC) :::::::It's been pretty much dropped now, and looks disorganised, but it still has a chance. Most models predict a TD, but CMC, the outlier, makes what looks like a cat. 2 or 3 landfall on Newfoundland, yikes! CMC and GFS especially seem to develop a second system that travells south of the main invest and follows 92L. 2007Astro'sHurricane 15:48, 14 August 2008 (UTC) ::::::::Enh, this one's just piddling around right now. It'll be a while before this becomes anything, if at all. Salek, I was looking at the Colorado State models, which had it where 92L is in 120 hrs. They don't have 93L up anymore (tell you something?) and now recurve 92 over the Bahamas. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 22:41, 14 August 2008 (UTC) :Ah, okay :) - Salak 04:03, 15 August 2008 (UTC) ::Looks better developed now, un-poofed. It could still hit Atlantic Canada, and if it follows 92L, there could be trouble. See above, 92L and 93L are holding each other's fate in their hands (and the fate of any land they might impact). 2007Astro'sHurricane 14:07, 15 August 2008 (UTC) :::Re-poof? No longer on the NHC map. - Salak 17:06, 16 August 2008 (UTC) ::::Do you see the remnants of 93L? Part of it has joined the trogh extending from Fay to Newfoundland, but the southern half has re-organised and is NE of the Virgin Islands, and some models actually develop that particular system ahead of 94L. 2007Astro'sHurricane 18:46, 19 August 2008 (UTC) Potential AoI: Southwest Caribbean NHC has it at low-risk, shower activity has diminished, might head into EPac, might contain remnants of 90L, likely to follow that Costa Rica ITCZ system. 2007Astro'sHurricane 16:05, 12 August 2008 (UTC) AoI: South of Newfoundland It just looks like a low pressure swirl, but models develop something out of this, some into what looks like a large TS. 2007Astro'sHurricane 16:08, 13 August 2008 (UTC) :CMC predicts the low behind it to explode, but most expect it to be weaker than this one. 2007Astro'sHurricane 23:16, 13 August 2008 (UTC) ::Do you see that swirl of low pressure off the East coast? That's what I'm talking about. It's about to enter cold water, but we may have subtropical development here. It's already a strong extratropical system, forecast to bring heavy rain to Nova Scotia and Newfoundland. Most models bring it up to TS strength, but half of the models want to bring it up to hurricane strength as well, but it will probably be subtropical if anything. 2007Astro'sHurricane 15:53, 14 August 2008 (UTC) :::Although it has TS strength, it's headed up into cold water and heavy shear. Still, heavy rain is dousing Nova Scotia and Newfoundland, several inches in fact, but don't expect anything tropical. 2007Astro'sHurricane 22:11, 14 August 2008 (UTC) 94L. INVEST AoI: Southwest of Cape Verde Another ITCZ system, only GFS and UKMET actually develop something significant within 5 days. 2007Astro'sHurricane 16:10, 13 August 2008 (UTC) :Better add CMC and GFDL to that list! 2007Astro'sHurricane 23:17, 13 August 2008 (UTC) ::Half the modls develop what looks like a TD, with the other half a TS or stronger, with GFS the strongest. 2007Astro'sHurricane 15:55, 14 August 2008 (UTC) :::It's drifted south now, could follow and affect the other invests. 2007Astro'sHurricane 14:09, 15 August 2008 (UTC) 94L. INVEST Hmm, it would seem to me that 92 and 94 are lucky numbers for hurricane invests, but 93 not so much. Expected to head north of the Bahamas, could affect the US east coast, could become a hurricane within 5 days. 2007Astro'sHurricane 14:13, 18 August 2008 (UTC) :Might become a hurricane in about a week, but CMC predicts what looks like a cat. 3 in about 5 days, in a track that resembles the 1938 Long Island Express. 2007Astro'sHurricane 14:21, 19 August 2008 (UTC) ::Medium risk and on the danger graphic for NHC. --Patteroast 09:24, 20 August 2008 (UTC) :::Back down to low-risk, but now it has a better chance of entering the Caribbean. 2007Astro'sHurricane 14:45, 20 August 2008 (UTC) ::::A couple model runs showing something interesting happening after it gets to the Caribbean... if this thing's going to do anything, it'll be then. --Patteroast 20:14, 21 August 2008 (UTC) :::::Most models don't predict much more than maybe a TD, but CMC is the outlier, predicting a cat. 3 before it even gets to the warmest water, SHIPS predicts a cat. 1, and HWRF a TS. Models in fair agreement, expected to head into the Caribbean then into the even warmer Atlantic. It might be headed for New York, but it's way too early to tell, but if this does form, then Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Bahamas, and the North American east coast from Florida to Newfoundland may need to watch this one closely. 2007Astro'sHurricane 22:53, 21 August 2008 (UTC) ::::::Centre re-developed to the south, so it could re-enter the Caribbean near St. Lucia. 2007Astro'sHurricane 14:17, 22 August 2008 (UTC) :::::::OMG, models in agreement on its track, expected to enter the Caribbean, possibly hit Haiti as a cat. 2 (uh-oh), and maybe enter the Gulf. GFDL predicts a cat. 3 in only 3 days in the Caribbean! Its immediate cone may be small but it will enlargen and nobody is safe. 2007Astro'sHurricane 21:07, 22 August 2008 (UTC) ::::::::Where on Earth are you coming up with model agreement on this? GFDL is the only model that does much with this, CMC makes something out of it in the short term but has it weakening toward Cuba, the rest of the models don't seem to be doing much of anything with this at all ... Albireo 21:20, 22 August 2008 (UTC) Potential AoI: NE of French Guiana It looks rather well-developed on satellite, but most models don't support this and it's probably too far south. 2007Astro'sHurricane 16:08, 13 August 2008 (UTC) AoI: Southeast of Cape Hatteras Expected to follow that other AoI up the gulf stream, half the models develop a TD, but CMC especially puts it at a cat. 2 landfall on Newfoundland. 2007Astro'sHurricane 16:00, 14 August 2008 (UTC) AoI: Gulf of Texas This could perhaps follow the gulf stream and affect Fay. 2007Astro'sHurricane 14:14, 17 August 2008 (UTC) :There is no geographical feature called "the Gulf of Texas." And this disturbance seems to ride in that same mysterious dimension. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 23:20, 19 August 2008 (UTC) AoI: Central Atlantic Hello? This may look like 94L but most models develop it as a separate system. Is everyone at school or something but unless you're American then it usually wouldn't start until Spetember anyway. 2007Astro'sHurricane 21:20, 18 August 2008 (UTC) :For once i agree. the low ESE of 94L is forming convection and has a chance, unless it is squashed by that massive wave about to move off behind it. -Winter123 07:24, 19 August 2008 (UTC) ::I'm surprised this isn't an invest yet, it has wrap-around cyclonic-like bands, could interact with 94L and push it southwards. 2007Astro'sHurricane 22:01, 20 August 2008 (UTC) AoI: SE of Cape Verde This one's near the caost, expected to follow the other two systems. 2007Astro'sHurricane 22:01, 20 August 2008 (UTC) 95L. INVEST Part of this developed from the northwestern flank of the Cape Verde system. SHIPS predicts a hurricane but there's some model dissagreement. 2007Astro'sHurricane 14:26, 22 August 2008 (UTC) Potential AoI: South of Bermuda This is just a trough, but it could punch a hole in the high, or it might even develop a system of its own but that's unlikely. 2007Astro'sHurricane 14:26, 22 August 2008 (UTC) NOAA august forecasts http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2008/20080807_hurricaneoutlook.html In short, 14-18 named (12-16 in May forecast), 7-10 'canes, (6-9 in May), 3-6 majors (2-5 in May). 85% chance of above-average instead of 65% in May. --Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 01:06, 8 August 2008 (UTC) RESPONSE TO INVEST 99.L IS OVER FLORIDA-MYSTERIOUS PREDICTIONS AHEAD. :Here's my revised prediction for the year, based on what already happened, but will likely be less accurate than the NOAA forecast: 20 tropical storms, of which 1 is subtropical and 1 not discovered until the re-analysis; 2 TDs which never become named; 9 hurricanes, of which 5 are major and 1 cat. 5; 4 landfalling hurricanes, of which 3 make US landfall; 2 retired storms; 7 Cape Verde storms; 4 storms whose remnants hit S. Ontario; and 13 landfalling storms. However, my predictions will probably be massively incorrect. 2007Astro'sHurricane 18:18, 8 August 2008 (UTC) ::Given the current active trend, I see an active year, but not that active. I say 16 storms, 8 hurricanes, 4 major ones, no subtropical or Cat 5s, 4-5 US landfalls, 2-3 landfalling US hurricanes but more hurricane landfalls elsewhere and 1-2 retired names. I actually think this might be a bit aggressive. The big variable for me is late season activity; will this active trend be able to extend into October. It did in 2005 but did not in 2004 (only three storms forming after September, only Matthew was of tropical origin). -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 19:36, 9 August 2008 (UTC) Are dire predictions the norm here? I'm an on-again off-again lurker but during the active season it seems like there is at least one person here who prognosticates cataclysmic scenarios of Katrina-esque proportions every time a thunderhead rolls off the African coast. Some of the above seems to follow that trend :p Albireo 20:55, 13 August 2008 (UTC) :For some people, they seem to be. Not everyone though. - Salak 05:37, 14 August 2008 (UTC) ::I don't know what you mean by "the above" - the original set of predictions are those of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The others...Astro's is probably a little high, but mostly close to the predictions of the NOAA (20 storms is a little above the max NOAA prediction, but 9 hurricanes and 5 major is within the limits of NOAA's prediction), and Skyfury is mostly about the middle ground of NOAA's. (16 is in the middle of NOAA's 14-18, 8 is a little below the middle of 7-10, and 4 is a little below the middle of 3-6) --Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 23:12, 15 August 2008 (UTC) :::Re-revised forecast! The changes made were: 10 hurricanes, 6 landfalling hurricanes, 4 US landfalling hurricanes, 3 retired names, and 10 Cape Verde storms. I would also like to back up my previous predictions: 20 storms is because: 1 in May and June, 3 in July, 5 in August, 7 in September, 3 in October, and 1 in November and December; and 1 cat 5 is because there have been 4 years with cat 5s in the past 6 years, with an average of more than 1 per year, and there is no indication that this year is below average compared to the past 6 years. 2007Astro'sHurricane 15:10, 16 August 2008 (UTC) Program for use in tropical cyclone QPF ..but weather weenies might like it too. heheheh It's a series of scripts that are run in-house through a GUI named cliqr (http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/tropical/rain/web/cliqr.html), and it runs for all ATCF-entered invests. It shows the rainfall graphics for the systems that most closely match ongoing invests, with greater weight placed on location, size (ROCI), and forward motion than the other parameters. If nothing else, you can look at the list of matches and see where they went. Thegreatdr 23:41, 6 August 2008 (UTC) :Ooh, grown-up toys, yay! -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 05:13, 7 August 2008 (UTC) Retirements at a glance So, now with six named storms, it seems linke we can discuss retirements now. Here is my take so far: *Arthur - 10% - damage not severe *Bertha - 7% - minimal damage *Cristobal - 5% - foregettable, hardly caused any damage *Dolly - 60% - caused over $1 billion in damage, and 21 deaths *Eduoard - 10% - damage total unknown, but probably not severe *Fay - 75% - caused over 100 deaths, severe damage possible. Interestingly, this could be the first time the same letter in the same list is retired twice, as Fay replaced Fran for the 2002 season. What are your thoughts? 00:57, 20 August 2008 (UTC) :I'm having a hard time corroborating the 100+ deaths from Fay. Most of the sources I'm finding are suggesting 14, and that the original count from Haiti was greatly exaggerated. I'd wait till damage figures are in, but right now I'd put Fay at more like 25% based on what I know right now. I think I'd also nudge Dolly down to 50%, as the death toll/damage estimates are not ''exceptionally high and the affected countries (US and Mexico) seem to be somewhat conservative with nominating names for retirement. Albireo 15:59, 20 August 2008 (UTC) ::By the way, Fay did not replace Fran in the 2002 season, it replaced it in the 1996 season, so this wouldn't be the first time. Here are my estimates: ::Arthur: 4% - It wasn't that bad, and storms cause mudslides all the time in Central America. ::Bertha: 3% - Although it broke a few records, damage in Bermuda wasn't severe. ::Cristobal: 2% - Damage minimal, although this is the only storm so far to follow the Gulf Stream, and it caused some flooding in Nova Scotia, but not much. ::Dolly: 49% - I'm not going to place any bets on this storm, as damage wasn't really that bad, and most flooding occured inland while it was a depression. However, it is still a devastating storm, which caused over 1 billion in damage, so it has a good chance nevertheless. ::Edouard: 6% - Although hurricane watches were originally issued, it never became a hurricane and was really not that bad. ::Fay: 29% - Damages in the US and Cuba were minimal, storms kill dozens in Haiti all the time and not get retired, the bus crash in the Dominican Republic was indirect, but each country does have some chance of retiring it, and it's not done yet. ::So, there you have it. 2007Astro'sHurricane 22:12, 20 August 2008 (UTC) Just a comment on the question of whether a name with the same letter has been retired from the same list more than once... it's happened multiple times already. Allen > Andrew (x2) > Alex. Alicia > Allison (x3) > Andrea. Frederic > Fabian (x4) > Fred (upcoming). And most strikingly the back-to-back Marilyn > Michelle > Melissa. --Patteroast 07:18, 21 August 2008 (UTC) :When was the last time a tropical storm was retired? One and only Allison? Seems Fay has way to go to reach that. However, if the track swifts a bit more to the south Big Easy might get in troubles. -- 21:06, 21 August 2008 (UTC)